Rural counties see spike in Coronavirus cases, as councils urge residents to stay at home

Latest figures show that Coronavirus is spreading through England’s rural areas rapidly and as weekly rates in London slow, new cases in counties have started to sharply catch up with urban hotspots.

The County Councils Network (CCN) says that its councils and their local health services are as ‘prepared as possible’ and doing all they can to stop the spread of disease, but the network is urging residents to follow government guidance on social distancing to prevent some services in smaller towns and villages becoming ‘overwhelmed’ by the virus.

Data compiled by CCN shows that the weekly change in new cases of Coronavirus in England’s rural counties has quadrupled in the past three weeks, with those areas seeing the largest increase in the past week.

However, the figures show that London and the major cities still have a disproportionate amount of cases as a proportion of their populations.

CCN has produced an analysis on the figures, which you can download here.

The week-on-week change in county areas was 4,061 higher for the week ending 6^th April compared to 30^th March – a 44% increase, meaning there were 8,085 new positive tests in the past week alone. The number of total positive tests in these areas now stand at 13,648, overtaking all other parts of the country in the matter of a week.

The week-on-week change in new cases over the past week in London of 2,207 was 5% lower than the previous week.

Metropolitan boroughs, which comprise large towns and cities in the North and West Midlands have seen a weekly change of cases of 3,079: 36% higher than the week before.

Council leaders in county areas warn that their communities face major challenges in the coming weeks, with large parts of their areas remote and rural. They say their areas have longer distances to travel to hospitals, while counties are home to 50% of all those aged over 70 in England – placing additional strains on social care systems.

They fear a further surge in cases could pose particular challenges for social care services and health systems in county areas.

Councils in those areas are reporting large increases in the fees they pay for social care services, as care providers face higher costs of responding to Coronavirus, with challenges also experienced in accessing personal protection equipment (PPE) for frontline social workers and other council staff. More Coronavirus cases in those areas will only exacerbate these costs.

Between 10^th to the 16^th March, London had 46% – 419 – of the country’s total new cases, but now is home a quarter (25%) as of April 6^th.

The figures show that some counties are seeing a huge spike in new cases each week. In rural Cumbria, the total new cases have increased by 413 last week alone. Lancashire has jumped by 560, and Derbyshire has increased from by 269.

Other areas that border London, such as Essex (557), Hertfordshire (531) and Surrey (529) have a seen a particular spike in positive tests in the past week.

With warm weather predicted over the coming days alongside a projected peak for the virus, county leaders have reiterated their call for people to follow government guidance on social distancing, with many councils having to close country parks and other outdoor areas.

Today they also issued a further ‘stay away’ plea to second home owners and possible visitors to counties.

County local authorities say they are well prepared and have extensive plans in place to work with all local agencies to respond locally.

In the past few weeks, they have stepped up where there are capacity gaps in the system such as delivering food parcels to vulnerable people, mobilising volunteers to support their residents and setting aside funds to assist care homes who are facing substantial new Coronavirus-related costs.

Cllr David Williams, chairman of the County Councils Network, said:

“County authorities, alongside healthcare providers and local volunteer armies, are ensuring they are as prepared as possible to stop the spread of the virus. However, while London and other urban areas have a disproportionate number of cases, positive tests have risen sharply in counties and rural areas over the past week, overtaking other parts of the country.

“Councils and their partners are well prepared and have extensive plans in place to work with all local agencies to respond locally. However, these latest figures show residents must continue to observe social distancing guidance as we head towards the peak of the epidemic and prevent services becoming overwhelmed.

“The challenges in tackling the Coronavirus in rural areas are particularly acute, with complex healthcare systems and additional social care pressures being felt by councils. Our communities can play a huge part by staying indoors, as well as those thinking of visiting our parks, forests or a second home in the warm weather. We urge residents to follow government guidance and stay home, protect our NHS, and save lives.”

Notes to editor

• The over 70s figure in paragraph seven of this press release is derived from this ONS dataset on population estimates (2018)
• All data used in this analysis is official Department of Health and Social Care daily figures on COVID-19 confirmed positive cases. Figures for the different types of councils were derived using the Local Government Association’s LG Inform database. For more information, visit here: https://lginform.local.gov.uk/search/themed-reports

• The table below shows the week-on-week change in new COVID-19 cases for each of the previous three weeks for each type of local authority and England. It measures the total increase in new COVID-19 cases compared to the previous weeks’ total increase (see below table for total weekly increases).

• The table below provides total increases in new COVID-19 cases for each of the previous four weeks for each type of local authority and England.

• The table below shows the total cumulative COVID-19 cases as of the previous five Monday’s for each type of local authority and England.

• The table below shows the total cumulative COVID-19 for each CCN member council and the total increase in new COVID-19 cases for the most recent week between 31/3/20 to 06/04/2020.