CCN Analysis - Census 2021: Population Change in Counties

This analysis examines population change across county and county‑unitary areas between the 2011 and 2021 Censuses.

It shows that counties have absorbed almost half of England’s population growth and are experiencing far more rapid demographic ageing than other parts of the country.

While counties remain attractive places to live and work, the report warns that the uneven age‑profile shift - characterised by lower growth in younger and working‑age residents and higher growth among older adults—could have implications for economic development, public services, adult social care, and future funding distribution.

Our report argues that current national policy and resource allocation do not reflect these structural shifts, placing counties at a disadvantage as they manage rising demand pressures and infrastructure needs of their areas.

The analysis, comparing the results of the 2011 and 2021 Censuses, finds:

• County councils and unitary council areas grew by 1.6 million people, accounting for 47% of England’s growth.
  ‍
• Total population growth in counties was 6.7%, higher than the national average (6.6%) and above metropolitan areas.
  ‍
• Growth in children and young people (0–19) was 1.3%, far below the national trend; 16 of 37 CCN members saw declines in this cohort. The working‑age population (20–64) grew by 3.5%, below the national average (4.4%). Over‑65s increased by 1.1 million, representing 62% of all national growth in this age group.
  ‍
• Population aged 65+ grew by 23.3%, significantly above the England average (20.1%).
  ‍
• Counties now have almost the same number of over‑65s as 0–19s, reflecting a 2.9% shift in the demographic profile —double that of metropolitan areas.

The research sets out the following recommendation to government:

• Proceed with reform to local government funding formulas,  ensuring updated population data is fully reflected and recognising rapidly ageing populations in county areas.
  ‍
• Accelerate devolution and economic powers for counties to strengthen local labour markets.
  ‍
• Provide sustained capital funding for infrastructure to meet higher demand from population growth.
  ‍
• Reform adult social care funding distribution to reflect counties’ older population.
  ‍
• Revisit roads and infrastructure allocations to match growth and cost pressures.