CCN and Newton - The Future of Children's Social Care: Emerging Findings

This report sets out emerging findings from joint work by the County Councils Network (CCN) and Newton on the future of children’s social care in England.

It outlines the current pressures facing the system, the trajectory it is on without reform, and the scale of change needed to secure better outcomes for children while maintaining financial sustainability.

The analysis draws on national data and the lived experience of councils delivering services at the sharp end, with a particular focus on children in care and those on the edge of care.

Emerging findings include:

• The number of children in care could rise to 95,000 by 2025, up from 69,000 in 2015: a 36% increase.
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• This could mean councils’ spend on children in care rises from £3.8bn in 2015 to £7.4bn in 2025.
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• As a proportion of their children and family budgets, spending on children in care could rise to 59% of their total by the middle of the decade, up from 42% in 2015.
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• The number of children in residential care has increased by 27% since 2015, and this is largely due to councils struggling to source suitable alternatives, such as foster carers and children staying in the care system for longer.
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• The number of foster carers has not kept up with demand, so a lower proportion (-4%) of children are being placed in these homes since 2015.  
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• Residential care is the most expensive form of care. The costs of an average weekly residential placement have increased from £2,915 per week in 2014 to £4,165 in 2020, and this is one of the factors in local authorities overspending on their children’s services budgets.

Recommendations to government include:

• Maintain a focus on safely keeping children within their families and communities wherever possible.
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• Invest in early intervention and edge‑of‑care services to prevent escalation and support children to return home.
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• Reform the system to improve partnership working across councils, health, police, courts and education.
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• Provide fair, sustainable funding to enable transformation, innovation and long‑term value for money.
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• Develop an optimised, locally delivered model of children’s services that puts children and families at the centre.