Home to School Transport: How SEND Reform Can Make Services More Sustainable

This analysis report highlights the escalating financial and operational pressures facing councils in delivering home to school transport (HTST), driven overwhelmingly by rising demand within the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) system. Our report provides a detailed assessment of past expenditure, national and county‑level trends, and future projections, showing how current patterns are structurally unsustainable.

The analysis underscores the impact of the 2014 SEND reforms, which expanded eligibility and contributed to rapid growth in Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs). These EHCPs have increased by 165% over the last decade. With demand and costs at record levels and set to rise further, we warn that HTST is now one of the most significant drivers of financial strain across local government.

Without fundamental reform, the system will continue to place unsustainable burdens on councils—particularly in county and rural areas.  

New analysis in the report finds that:

• Spending on SEND home to school transport has risen by more than 200% since 2015/16, reaching nearly £2bn in 2024/25 and projected to hit £3.4bn by 2030/31.  
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• An estimated 206,000 young people use SEND transport today, rising to 311,000 by 2030/31 - equivalent to 17,500 additional pupils per year.  

• Almost half of all SEND transport users live in CCN member areas, placing county councils at the sharpest end of rising demand.   Average per‑pupil SEND transport costs - already around £9,500 - are expected to rise to nearly £11,000 by 2030/31.  
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• SEND transport now consumes 64% of total HTST spending, projected to reach 84% by 2030/31, squeezing expenditure on mainstream transport.  

Recommendations to government include:  

• Prioritise fundamental SEND reform to support inclusion in mainstream schools and reduce reliance on distant special school placements.  
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• Tighten the scope and purpose of EHCPs so they focus on those with the most complex needs.  
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• Reform the tribunal system to prevent placement decisions being made without considering transport costs.
   
• Provide clearer national guidance enabling councils to reform HTST locally and operate services on a more sustainable footing.