LaingBuisson - Modelling the impact of Fair Pay policies on the costs of adult social care

This report, produced by LaingBuisson for the County Councils Network (CCN), models the financial impact of implementing the government’s proposed Fair Pay Agreement policy across adult social care services in England. Drawing on detailed data from care homes for older adults, care homes for working age and lifelong disabled adults, homecare, and supported living, the analysis estimates the additional costs that councils – and the wider system – would face under different uplift scenarios.

The findings underline the scale of the challenge for local authorities, particularly CCN member councils. The modelling shows the need for fair pay policies to be fully funded and illuminates the disproportionate impact on county authorities, with their unique populations, geographies, workforces and care markets.  

Key findings:

• The earmarked £500m government contribution for the first fair pay agreement would fund councils’ costs of a 3% pay increase (c. £0.44 per hour) for low‑paid care staff.  
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• A 5% pay increase would cost councils £861m in 2027/28, rising to £894m in 2028/29.  
• When including costs to the NHS and people funding their own care, total costs are 65% higher than council‑only estimates.
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• CCN member councils would absorb 48% of total national costs, meaning:  £237m for a 3% uplift or £410m for a 5% uplift  

Further information, including our recommendations are available in our submission to the government’s consultation on the Fair Pay Agreement Process in Adult Social Care.