Newton - Local Government Reorganisation - analysing the impact on people services

With local government reorganisation (LGR) now government policy, this report from Newton and the County Councils Network examines how these structural changes will affect people‑based services such as adult social care, children’s services and SEND.  

Based on data from Newton, it analyses 77 reorganisation scenarios across 19 county areas to understand the impact of different unitary authority sizes.

The report argues that decisions on scale will have long‑term consequences for vulnerable residents, service quality and financial sustainability:

• The evidence strongly indicates that fragmentation into smaller unitary councils would heighten pressures on demand, workforce capacity, care costs, and high‑needs deficits, while larger-scale unitaries offer a more stable and sustainable model.
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• Smaller unitaries (below 500,000 populations) create far greater demand variation, increasing the risk of services being overwhelmed.  
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• Reduced population scale leads to higher unit costs, with disaggregation below 300,000 residents adding £270m annually.
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• Disaggregation significantly increases senior staffing requirements, adding up to 1,000 posts and £95m yearly.  
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• Larger authorities are more likely to achieve Good or Outstanding Ofsted ratings, while smaller councils risk reduced service quality.  
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• Smaller unitaries inherit disproportionate High Needs Block deficits, increasing financial instability.

Ahead of decisions on reorganisation, the report recommends that government:

• Avoid or minimise disaggregation; prefer unitary authorities of 500,000+ population.  
  
• Establish independent assessment of proposals to protect people‑based services.  
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• Develop national solutions to ordinary residence issues and SEND deficits.  
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• Align LGR with ICS and wider service reforms, ensuring coherent footprints and implement a workforce and leadership strategy to mitigate staffing risks.