Research Reports

PwC - Independent Review of Local Government Spending Need and Funding (Technical Report)

This report, produced by PwC, provides a detailed analysis of the scale and distribution of financial pressures facing local government in England up to 2024/25

22 May 2019
PwC - Independent Review of Local Government Spending Need and Funding (Technical Report)
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This report, produced by PwC, provides a detailed analysis of the scale and distribution of financial pressures facing local government in England up to 2024/25. It examines how spending need has evolved, how it is expected to grow, and whether current funding levels are sufficient to meet demand. The analysis moves beyond historic spending patterns to estimate councils’ spending need in the future. The report finds that demographic change, rising service demand and unavoidable cost pressures are driving rapid growth in council expenditure, particularly in adult and children’s social care. These pressures fall unevenly across the system, with upper‑tier authorities, especially county councils and unitary councils, facing the greatest exposure due to their responsibility for demand‑led, statutory services and their limited capacity to raise income. CCN authorities are shown to have significant underlying “unmet need”, meaning historic spending levels understate the true cost of providing consistent services. Under current funding assumptions, the gap between spending need and available resources widens sharply over time. While council tax increases reduce this gap, they are insufficient to address the structural imbalance; and reliance on reserves or fees and charges is shown to be unsustainable. The report concludes that both the Spending Review for 2020/21, and the Fair Funding Review which will reset local government funding formulae, must more accurately reflect relative need across different council types. Without reform, CCN authorities face the greatest financial sustainability risks, with limited options to close funding gaps while continuing to meet statutory duties. The data in the report reveals that: Local government spending need increases by 35% (£15.7bn) between 2015/16 and 2024/25. CCN authorities face a 33% (£5.9bn) increase in spending need over the same period. Adult social care accounts for 32% of total spending need in England and rises fastest for counties. CCN authorities account for around 40% of the total funding gap by 2024/25. Council tax rises of 2.99% would halve, but not eliminate, the projected funding gap. Reserves could cover only around 11% of future funding gaps and are not sustainable. Recommendations to government include: Ensure the Fair Funding Review reflects underlying spending need and unmet demand. Recognise that CCN authorities face the highest exposure to cost and demand pressures. Do not rely on council tax, reserves or fees and charges as long‑term solutions to meet anticipated funding gaps. Align Spending Review decisions with realistic assessments of service demand.

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Devolution
Finance