Schools White Paper cannot ignore looming £3.4bn SEND transport bill, councils warn
Councils in England are on course to be transporting over 100,000 more young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) to school by the end of the decade if the system is not reformed, a new analysis reveals.
The County Councils Network (CCN) estimates the yearly costs of providing school transport for young people with SEND could reach £3.4bn by 2030/31, £1.4bn more than last year, as demand continues to rise at an unsustainable rate.
If reached, this would be a five-fold increase on what local authorities were spending when reforms to the SEND system were first introduced in 2015. The analysis shows that councils are on course to be transporting a ‘city’s worth’ of extra young people between now and 2031, with local authorities warning that the numbers are becoming overwhelming.
The findings come ahead of the government’s upcoming Schools White Paper, thought to be imminent. The CCN says that it must introduce comprehensive reforms to the SEND system, including to Education, Health and Care Plans (ECHPs) and tribunals, to help confront the rapidly rising costs of school transport.
Key findings from the CCN analysis, Home to School Transport: How SEND reform can make services sustainable, set out the scale of the challenge for local authorities:
- Councils transported an estimated 206,000 children and young people with SEND to school last year – a record high.
- If current trends continue, this will rise to 311,000 by 2030/31, an average increase of 17,500 pupils a year. Half of these young people are transported in rural and county areas.
- As a result, SEND school transport costs are projected to rise from the £2bn that councils spent last year to £3.4bn by 2030/31 – a level councils say is unsustainable without reform. It is a five-fold increase on the £645m they were spending in 2015, the first year that SEND reforms increased eligibility. County areas are at the sharp end of this: representing half of costs.
- SEND pupils now cost councils close to £10,000 on average to get toschool – and are projected to become more costly. Last year councils spent £9,481 on average per SEND pupil and this could rise to almost £11,000 per pupil in 2030/31 because of fuel costs, inflation and some pupils travelling in single-occupancy vehicles.
- Rising SEND demand is squeezing transport provision for mainstream pupils. In 2015, 64% of councils’ entire school transport budgets were spent on SEND school transport, and this is projected to rise to 85% by 2030/31. Faced with mounting costs, a recent CCN survey found that three quarters of councils plan to tighten eligibility for mainstream school transport over the next three years.
Earlier this month, the government announced that 90% of the estimated £6.6bn in SEND deficits that councils have accrued over the last decade to deliver the non-transport, day-to-day services will be paid for by the Treasury. The government will also absorbing all SEND spending into central government from 2028 onwards.
Whilst councils have welcomed these moves, they do not account for expenditure on SEND home to school transport. Rising demand for for ECHPs has also meant SEND home to school transport has become one of the biggest challenges for councils. The £1.4bn rise in cost between 2024/25 and 2030/31 is the third highest spend pressure facing councils over the next few years, behind their growing expenditure of care services.
Local authorities are required to offer free transport for school-age children who cannot walk to their nearest school due to distance, and/or SEND, including post-16 learners.
Over the last few years, the numbers requiring SEND school transport has been driven by a sharp rise in SEND assessments. The number of children and young people with EHCPs has reached 640,000, more than double the amount (240,000) when reforms to extend eligibility for SEND services were introduced in 2015. Many EHCPs entitle pupils to free school transport, often specifying the type of vehicle required via a tribunal decision.
The CCN argues that the Schools White Paper should set out reforms to mainstream schools, enabling them to better support more SEND in their local school and closer to home, reducing a growing reliance on special and independent school places. This will help curtail transport costs.
With ECHPs projected to increase by a further 200,000 by 2029 if nothing is done to change the system, councils say government should also go further with legislative changes to focus EHCPs on those most in need, underpinned by changes to the tribunal system. This would help reduce demand for services, whilst ensuring tribunals do not rule on cases without a full consideration of transport costs to the local authority.
Today’s report says that government could also consider a means-testing policy for school transport, which could help to ensure that support is focused on those that need it the most.
Cllr Bill Revans, SEND Spokesperson for the County Councils Network, said:
“After the government’s announcement that SEND deficits will be largely paid off, all eyes are on the Schools White Paper as a means to bring the system back to sustainability. It is vital that government does not ignore the alarming rise in SEND school transport costs, which has become one of the biggest pressures on council budgets over the last few years.
“The numbers are becoming overwhelming for many councils’ budgets. Last year the County Councils Network estimates that councils transported a record number of SEND pupils, many in single-occupancy vehicles. If nothing changes, they will be transporting more than 100,000 additional pupils within six years – a city’s worth of young people.
“There are many unintended consequences to this, not least a tighter squeeze on who is eligible for mainstream school transport. Therefore, the government must ensure the white paper sets out proposals that are comprehensive enough to deal with the scale of the transport challenge, not just what happens in the classroom – including changes to EHCPs and tribunals.”
